The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) released its annual population survey results last week. The results, which are based on a variety of surveys and population estimates from the USFWS, Canadian Wildlife Service, and state and provincial agencies, play a key role in dictating yearly migratory waterfowl hunting regulations. They are also a useful tool for hunters hoping to gain insight for the upcoming season. Here are five important takeaways from this year’s duck count.
Mallard and Overall Duck Numbers Remain Steady
Overall, this year’s surveys didn’t show a significant year-over-year change for two of its most important categories: mallards and overall waterfowl numbers. This year’s estimate for total breeding ducks was 34 million—unchanged from 2024. That number is more or less typical at just 4 percent below the long-term average. As for mallards, one of the most widely hunted ducks, this year’s estimate was 6.6 million, which is similar to 2024 and 17 percent below the long-term average.
Teal Populations Are Subpar
The 2025 Waterfowl Population Survey showed 4.4 million blue-winged teal, down 4 percent from last year and 13 percent below the long-term average. Meanwhile, the green-winged teal population was around 342,000, down 24 percent year over year and 7 percent off the long-term average (LTA). The blue-winged teal count is especially notable because under the Migratory Bird Hunting Frameworks, a count between 3.3 and 4.7 million triggers a 9-day early teal season in the Central and Mississippi River Flyways, shortened from 14 days, which is allowed when the population is above 4.7 million. This means that 2026—as with 2025—will have an abbreviated early teal season. The good news, though, is that there will be an early teal season, as the season is cancelled if the blue-winged teal count drops below 3.3 million.
Redheads and Canvasbacks Jump
This year’s survey results show above-average populations for some of North America’s most beloved diver species: redheads and canvasbacks. Redheads are up 17 percent from 2024 and 25 percent above the LTA. Canvasbacks are up 22 percent from 2024 and 17 percent above the LTA. If you’ve been putting off a trip to target cans, which many consider to be the king of diver ducks, this could be the year to do it.
Pintails Are Doing Alright
This year’s results show a decent pintail count at 2.2 million, which is up 13 percent from 2024 but remains 41 percent off the long-term average. That said, the important takeaway here is that under the new Northern Pintail Harvest Strategy, the population is strong enough to maintain this year’s three pintail limit in 2026.
Poor May Prairie Pothole Pond Count
Perhaps the most disheartening part of this year’s survey was a dismal May Pond Estimate in the prairies. This year, there were 4.2 million prairie pothole ponds, down 19 percent from 2024 and 20 percent below the long-term average. That number marks the lowest estimate since 2004 and could spell bad news for hunters as the ponds play a critical role in reproductive success, and young-of-the-year birds often make up the majority of hunter-harvest. That said, the impact could be mitigated by mid-May rains in parts of North Dakota, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, though the precipitation may have been too late for early-breeding ducks like mallards and pintails. Next year’s breeding duck estimate will show just how much of an impact this year’s dry spring had.
“The cumulative effects of widespread and long-term drought in the prairies are apparent, as parched soils soak up available moisture and more and more wetlands continue to dry out,” said Ducks Unlimited Chief Scientist Steve Adair in a press release. “There are long-term benefits of recycling nutrients and exposure of seed banks, but droughts are painful when they’re happening.”