On September 1, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) released its 2026 Waterfowl Population Status Report. The annual report looks at key breeding habitats and populations, and it is used as part of scientific frameworks to set season dates and bag limits for waterfowl species. It also offers one of the best barometers for the coming duck and goose hunting seasons. Here are the key takeaways from this year’s report.
1) Overall Duck Population Holds Steady
While there was significant variance for some species, the estimate for total breeding ducks in the traditional survey area came in at 33.4 million, nearly matching 2025’s count of 33.9 million. That number is just slightly off the long-term average since 1955. Considering poor breeding conditions in recent years, it’s a good sign that the overall population is holding steady.
2) Mallards Were Down
Though the overall duck population remained steady, there will likely be fewer greenheads to shoot this fall compared to previous years. The breeding mallard population was a dismal 5.9 million, down 11% from 2025 and 26% from the long-term average. Additionally, it was the lowest mallard estimate in 33 years. Yes, 33 years.
That said, the low estimate wasn’t totally unexpected, considering 2025 saw the lowest May pond count—an indicator of spring breeding habitat availability—since 2004.
“Those dry conditions almost certainly resulted in low production in 2025 and slight to moderate declines in returning breeding populations this year,” said Ducks Unlimited (DU) chief scientist Dr. Steve Adair. “Mallards are now at their lowest level in over 30 years. This provides a stark reminder that our conservation work is far from done and underscores the need for sustained investments in science-based population monitoring and management.”
Part of the issue also has to do with where habitat is good, and where it isn’t. “Mallards continued the recent pattern of having a fairly northern distribution,” said Dr. Frank Rohwer, president and chief scientist for Delta Waterfowl. “Parkland and boreal forest mallard numbers were relatively high compared to the prairie habitats, where duck numbers were way off. That is not good for duck production because we know prairie ducks outproduce parkland and boreal forest ducks.”
Despite the low overall population, mallard bag limits will remain the same in most of the country, except for the Atlantic Flyway, where a new eastern mallard harvest strategy framework will lead to a 3-bird limit with no sex restriction.
3) Habitat Conditions Improve
Speaking of May pond counts, they bounced back in 2026, notching a 14% increase compared to 2025. Still, the count is down 9% from the long-term average. This shows that conditions in the Prairie Pothole Region have improved, particularly in the Canadian provinces, and that conditions on that landscape appear to be stabilizing. And it could be a good indicator for hunters this fall and beyond.
“This bodes well for a moderate increase in the number of young birds flying south this fall,” said Adair. “More importantly, we are hopeful that these wetland conditions will carry over to benefit nesting ducks in 2027.”
4) Teal Came in Low
Bluewing teal were estimated at 3.9 million, which was 11% lower than 2025 and 22% below the long-term average. Because of this low result and the current harvest framework, early teal seasons will continue to be abbreviated to 9-days instead of the more liberal 16-day options that we last saw in 2024.
5) Pintails Also Down
The northern pintail estimate dipped 11% from 2025 to 1.9 million, which is startlingly 48% below the long-term average. The species is facing similar limiting factors as mallards, as well as more surprising declines in the Alaska/Yukon Territory/Old Crow Flats region. The good news is that under the USFWS interim pintail harvest strategy, the 3-bird limit will persist in 2027.
6) Divers Are Doing Well
One of the big bright spots of this year’s surveys is that diver populations appear to be thriving, with significant population increases for canvasbacks, redheads, and scaup.
We’ll continue sifting through the data and breaking down key data from the survey in the coming weeks. In the meantime, take a look at the full report here.