On June 11, the North Dakota Game and Fish Department (NDGFD) released its 79th annual spring breeding duck survey. The breeding duck count is an important preliminary barometer for waterfowl production in the Prairie Potholes—the main breeding grounds for the Central Flyway.
Overall, the state saw a dip in breeding ducks. The 2026 count, which was conducted in May, showed 2.4 million birds, down 9.5 percent from 2025. More worryingly, this year’s count is the first time the index has dropped below the 1948-2025 average since 1993.
The likely causes of the dip, according to experts, have to do with habitat and wetland availability. “We’ve seen a couple million acres of grass in the form of CRP come off the landscape in recent years,” said NDGFD Migratory Game Bird Supervisor John Palarski. “Between those declines and wetland loss due to drainage and consolidation, that’s going to impact our ability to produce ducks into the future, which has acute impacts for waterfowl hunters here in the state, but also has continental impacts, because North Dakota is the Duck Factory.”
Dry regional conditions haven’t helped, either. “The 2026 survey results reflect how dry the prairies have been in recent years,” said Delta Waterfowl Chief Conservation Officer Joel Brice. North Dakota is holding steady, but we’re not getting enough precipitation to fully recharge the state’s wetlands.”
The survey results varied depending on species. Bluewing teal, the state’s most common nesting duck, were estimated at 525,163, marking a 23 percent year-over-year decline. Gadwalls dropped 14 percent, shovelers 11 percent, and greenwing teal 21 percent. Diving duck numbers were down across all reported species.
There were some brighter spots. Mallards were estimated at 408,893 birds, a 7-percent increase from last year, though that number is still 15% below the long-term average and the second lowest estimate since 1993. Pintail numbers also bumped but remained well below the long-term average.
Meanwhile, the Canada goose estimate was down 6.5 percent but was still over double the state’s population management objective for the species. While the survey results offer a glimpse into possible hunting conditions for this season, experts stress that conditions this spring and summer will also impact waterfowl production in the Prairie Potholes.
“We are still waiting to see what brood water conditions will be throughout the state,” said Palarski. “More precipitation will be needed to have ample brood habitat. The July brood survey will give us a better idea of duck production and better insight into what to expect this fall.”