As we head into August, many waterfowlers are turning their focus to the upcoming season. And one question is on many of our minds: how many birds will be around?
While there are many factors that contribute to whether a waterfowl season is a good one, perhaps the most accurate early indicator to look at is population survey results, which are typically conducted during the spring breeding season. The most impactful survey—and one that directly influences regulations for the following year—is put out in late August or early September by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service. As we wait for this year’s USFWS survey, several states in key waterfowl production regions have started putting out their own counts, such as North Dakota, which provided a primer for waterfowl production conditions in the Prairie Pothole Region.
More recently, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) put out its annual breeding population survey results. The Golden State is a major wintering area for migratory waterfowl in the Pacific Flyway, but it also has a substantial breeding population. Hunters there primarily feel the impacts of local population levels in the state during the early season, before more birds begin pushing south from Canada and Alaska.
This year’s results show good breeding habitat conditions and a positive production outlook, despite a low-moisture winter. “Abundant April rains combined with carryover water from 2025 allowed favorable habitat conditions for nesting ducks. Average production is expected for most duck species in northern California,” explained CDFW Waterfowl Program Biologist Melanie Weaver.
Overall, the total breeding population declined from 482,358 to 435,937, marking a 10% year-over-year decrease. That number is 18% off the long-term average. Fortunately, mallard numbers remained steady, though they were 16% below the long-term average. Meanwhile, the local gadwall population dropped 44% and Canada Geese 18%. The cinnamon teal population, in contrast, rose 8% from 2025, though that population hovers just below the long-term average.
While the breeding survey population results are important, another important component of it is assessing likely production outcomes for ducklings and goslings. This summer, it appears to have been a tale of two stories: due to water storage efforts, the Central Valley was in good shape, and biologists expect to see average to above-average production success there. Meanwhile, the wetland levels in Northeast California, which includes the Klamath Basin Refuge Complex, declined rapidly in the early summer, likely hindering waterfowl production there.
Beyond natural causes, CDFW scientists point to “persistent efforts to improve breeding habitat throughout the state” as being critical to “ensuring summer wetlands were
available to breeding ducks.” It’s no surprise that conservation efforts are critical for duck production, and it’s more evidence of why regulation changes that could negatively impact key breeding areas, like one facing the Duck Factory of the Prairie Potholes, are bad ideas.
